Alun Cairns: It is a privilege to follow the right hon. Member for Barking (Dame Margaret Hodge), but I was disappointed with much of what she said and particularly with the tone she took. My constituents face many of the challenges that are faced in England and the rest of the UK. She talked about the Labour solutions, but those are very different for my constituents. She talked about healthcare and childcare. Those are devolved functions and the performance and opportunities in Wales are much less in spite of the Labour Party running it. So I suggest she spend a bit of time looking at the experiences my constituents face before casting aspersions and doubts on the policies and strategies outlined earlier today.
I pay tribute to the Chancellor and to the Treasury team for the stability and the confidence that they have brought to the economy. I think the fallout from the covid pandemic and the consequences of Putin’s aggression in Ukraine have had a major impact on all economies around the world, but there is no doubt that the stability, the supply-side changes and the deflationary policies that have been pursued have had a major positive impact. Building on the Bloomberg speech that the Chancellor made some weeks ago, today’s Budget starts to put some flesh on those bones.
The big news from the Budget is, without question, the OBR forecast that, in spite of the doom-mongers in the Opposition and despite the criticisms of the Government from all sides over the challenges in recent months, the UK will avoid a technical recession. We need to recognise the merit of that, and the influence of the Treasury team that played a big part in securing it.
The second headline, for me, is the prediction that inflation will fall to 2.9% by the end of the year. That is quite remarkable and again shows how the Treasury’s restraint, in resisting calls from Members on all sides, including myself, for more spending in our constituencies, is reducing the impact of inflation, which is the worst form of taxation, eroding people’s standard of living, the wages they earn and the capital they have amassed.
Similarly, Opposition Members fail to recognise that, since 2010, the UK economy has grown faster than that of France, Italy and Japan and at the same pace as that of Germany. They will persist in talking down the economy, but the way they do so has a real impact. It puts doubt in investors’ minds when they see the Opposition undermining the confidence established by those on the Front Bench.
I must highlight that the help with energy costs is very welcome and the fuel duty freeze will be a huge relief to my constituents, both those in rural areas and small businesses, white van men and women, who have to go out and about to win contracts day in, day out. They will be relieved and pleased with the fuel duty freeze.
Prepayment meter changes are long overdue; that should have been acted on by a number of Chancellors and energy Ministers in decades gone by. I welcome the changes and I am pleased that those on this Front Bench have grasped the nettle and insisted on them. They will make a real difference to the cost of living for some of the most hard-pressed families and show that this Government are on the side of hard-working people and families.
Ultimately, on the childcare changes, I hope that the two Welsh Labour Members on the Opposition Front Bench will encourage their colleagues in Cardiff Bay to follow suit. We need to remember that 50% of the Welsh population lives within 25 miles of the border with England and, unless the Welsh Government follow the Conservative Government’s lead, my constituents and their constituents will start to feel the pain of the far greater incentives offered in England.
On a broader basis, I welcome the annual investment allowance and the capital incentives laid out today. The incentives for energy security, small modular reactors, nuclear investment and carbon capture and storage also suggest that a simpler taxation system will mean that we do not need so many incentives and so many reliefs in so many areas. I recognise it is not easy to achieve that at a time of economic challenge, but that is clearly where we want to end.
The main point that I want to make in the limited time I have left is the warm welcome from the beer and pub industry for the draught duty extension from 5% relief to 9.2% relief. As many Members have said, that change will effectively mean that, in real terms, the price of a pint in a pub will be 11p less than elsewhere, which has been widely welcomed by the industry. I should declare my interest as the chair of the all-party parliamentary group on pubs.
Of course, we need to recognise that that duty is paid for by the brewers, and we need to call for the brewers to pass that benefit on to the pubs, because the pubs in our communities act as the fabric of society. They offer flexible employment opportunities and have the great capacity of bringing back into employment people who would often be left out of the workforce. Pubs and hospitality are a sector of the economy that feels the impact of a recession or any downturn first, but which gains the benefits at the end of a recession, when people are feeling far better.
There is no doubt that the Budget will make a major impact for hard-working families, getting people back into work and encouraging investment, but it will also support people with the cost of living. I am absolutely delighted that the Chancellor has listened to the calls from the industry on the draught duty relief. The industry has made further calls, and I am encouraged that the Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury has already contacted my office to seek a call early next week to discuss the impact of changes and how we can further maximise their benefits.